Do you want to work in radio?

[Jono]

So what are your tips for this year's race and what have you put bets down on?

[Geezer7348]

I've picked out of a lucky dip at work Vodka Blue and also Snowy Morning so I will see how they get on. It's really difficult to choose which horse to pick :|, Hedgehunter has done reasonably well in previous Nationals although I dont feel it will win this year.

Can't say I am really in to horse racing but seeing as the National is only a once yearly event I tend to have a stab in the dark punt.

I found the following info on another forum I frequent. May be of some use to somebody wanting to take a punt, as noted Joes Edge is a number 2 reserve which I would presume means two horses have to drop out?, also on the reserves are Ardaghey, In the high grass and ossmoses.

Good Luck!

I also believe he (joes edge) is number 44 in line at the moment (needs 4 horses to drop out).... have a read at this, an interesting statistical analysis of the grand national history (6 tips at very bottom):

Given the unique challenge that it presents to both horse and rider, it is not surprising that many people see the Grand National as a lottery. However, over the years some remarkably consistent statistical trends have emerged. Indeed, for reasons of weight, age, official rating and previous National experience, well over two-thirds of the field can normally be discounted when searching for the winner.

Last year this trends review highlighted five horses to follow in the 2007 Grand National based purely upon historical trends. These five included the 33-1 winner Silver Birch! Here are this year’s positives and negatives (scroll to bottom of the page for our trends prediction for the 2008 Grand National):

Weight

The most significant, and perhaps best known, statistic for finding National winners is that in the last 51 years only one horse, Red Rum, has carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory. In addition, Hedgehunter is the only horse since Corbiere in 1982 to lump more than 11st to victory and he carried only 1lb more than that threshold. Horses carrying over 11st 5lbs are 0 – 75 since 1977. This is a big negative for:

Hedgehunter

Hi Cloy

Knowhere

Mr Pointment

Ollie Magern

Turko

Madison Du Berlais

Simon

Opera Mundi

Age

The last time a seven year old won the race was 68 years ago and you have to go back a further 27 years to find the last winning six year old. This is a major problem for supporters of:

Turko

Madison Du Berlais

Opera Mundi

Iron Man

No Full

Bob Hall

Milan Deux Mille

Nadover

In The High Grass

The last successful novice was Mr What in 1958.

Only two teenagers have ever won the National, with the last success occurring 85 years ago. In fact, no teenager has even made the frame since 1969. This rules out:

Risk Accessor

Horses aged in double figures have won 12 of the last 18 renewals, but nine year olds also have a decent record (three winners in the last ten years). This statistic is probably explained by the fact that stamina increases with age in many horses, so the ones to look out for this year are:

Hedgehunter

Hi Cloy

Knowhere

Mr Pointment

Ollie Magern

Simon

Fundamentalist

Slim Pickings

Vodka Bleu

L’Ami

Bewleys Berry

Contraband

Mckelvey

Point Barrow

Cornish Rebel

D’Argent

Baily Breeze

King Johns Castle

Cornish Sett

Naunton Brook

Tumbling Dice

Backbeat

Comply Or Die

Idle Talk

Kelami

Black Apalachi

Philson Run

Ardaghey

Dun Doire

Joes Edge

Drombeag

Dunbrody Miller

Longshanks

Ossmoses

Le Duc

Livingstonebramble

Theatre Knight

Ballycassidy

Eric’s Charm

Irish Raptor

Loulou Nivernais

Newbay Prop

Stamina

Every single winner of the National since Gay Trip in 1970 had previously won over three miles or further, so the claim that two-and-a-half milers make perfect Grand National contenders is misleading.

In 2007, the six runners in the field who had yet to win over 3 miles plus all failed to make the frame., as did the seven similar runners in 2006.

This is a huge negative for:

Madison Du Berlais

Iron Man

Fundamentalist

Contraband

No Full

Bob Hall

King Johns Castle

Tumbling Dice

Milan Deux Mille

Nadover

Livingstonebramble

Merdeka

Pak Jack

Loulou Nivernais

Risk Accessor

Breeding

On the breeding front, no French bred has won the Grand National for nearly a century. Admittedly, Gallic breeders have not had anything like as many runners in the past as they have in recent seasons since the massive influx of such horses to these shores, but in the last seven years alone they have provided over 25% of the runners without any success.

Very few races in France are run beyond 3 miles and so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into their stock. French breds are also trained harder from a younger age, so they can be past their best when they hit eight or nine years of age and the National is not a race for early maturing types.

Last year, eleven French breds took their chance, including the favourite, Monkerhostin, and none were even placed.

This means we can discount:

Turko

Madison Du Berlais

Opera Mundi

Iron Man

Butler’s Cabin

Vodka Bleu

L’Ami

No Full

Mon Mome

Kelami

Milan Deux Mille

Nadover

Le Duc

Pak Jack

Blue Splash

Eric’s Charm

Loulou Nivernais

Headgear

Blinkered, visored or cheekpieced runners have a poor record in the race. Since L’Escargot in 1975, only Earth Summit has successfully carried headgear to victory. In that period, another 146 horses have tried and failed, although the cheek pieced Mckelvey almost bucked the trend last year when finishing a gallant runner up.

Until the final declarations are released, we won’t know which horses are wearing headgear. However, based on previous outings this is a negative for:

Vodka Bleu

Iron Man

Mckelvey

Point Barrow

D’Argent

Baily Breeze

Cornish Sett

Tumbling Dice

Comply Or Die

Idle Talk

Nadover

Black Apalachi

Drombeag

Dunbrody Millar

Ballycassidy

Newbay Prop

The Irish

The latest trend to emerge is the success of Irish trained runners. Raiders from across the Irish Sea have won six of the last nine renewals. In fact Irish runners finished 1st and 3rd last year and 1st, 2nd and 4th the year before.

This is a plus for:

Hedgehunter

Hi Cloy

Slim Pickings

Chelsea Harbour

Snowy Morning

No Full

Baily Breeze

King Johns Castle

Tumbling Dice

Black Apalachi

Dun Doire

In The High Grass

Livingstonebramble

Merdeka

Newbay Prop

Previous runners

In the last twenty years, 18 of the horses finishing in the first four ran in the previous year’s race.

However, whilst it isn’t rare for horses to be placed in the race more than once, the last horse to win the race twice was Red Rum in 1977. This is a negative for supporters of:

Hedgehunter

Interestingly, it is the horses who came to grief in the previous year’s contest who have the best win record of repeat triers. Since 1989, Little Polveir, Red Marauder and Hedgehunter all went on to win the race after losing their jockey the season before. This was a positive for:

Simon

Point Barrow

Bewleys Berry

Knowhere

Le Duc

Ballycassidy

Livingstonebramble

Idle Talk

Course form

Six of the last seven winners had run over the National fences before, which is plus for:

Hedgehunter

Knowhere

Mr Pointment

Simon

Iron Man

Slim Pickings

Vodka Bleu

L’Ami

Bewleys Berry

Mckelvey

Point Barrow

Cornish Rebel

Naunton Brook

Idle Talk

Kelami

Milan Deux Mille

Philson Run

Dun Doire

Joes Edge

Drombeag

Dunbrody Millar

Longshanks

Le Duc

Livingstonebramble

Pak Jack

Theatre Knight

Ballycassidy

Eric’s Charm

Irish Raptor

Risk Accessor

Other races

Apart from the previous season’s National, a number of other big races have proved themselves to be a good guide to this great event, and the following are the four most informative:

Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup – Newbury

In the last 20 years, the Hennessy has become the most significant National “trial”. An incredible six winners have come from the race, together with a further 11 placed horses. This is a good sign for backers of:

Madison Du Berlais

Knowhere

Point Barrow

D’Argent

Snowy Morning

Irish National – Fairyhouse

The Irish Grand National also has a great record having provided five winners and one placed horse in the last 20 years, with four of those winners all coming in the last nine renewals. Two horses, Numbersixvalverde and Bobbyjo actually managed the big race double. This is plus for:

Butler’s Cabin

Cloudy Lane

Chelsea Harbour

Welsh National - Chepstow

The next most influential race is the Welsh National having thrown up ten win and placed horses in the last 20 years – although only one horse, Earth Summit, has done the double in that period. This is good news for:

Naunton Brook

Cornish Sett

Idle Talk

Gold Cup - Cheltenham

Whilst Gold Cup winners are rarely risked in the Grand National these days, the race has produced three winners and nine placed horses since 1987. Ten of those 12 finished second, third, fourth or fifth. This is a positive for:

Knowhere

Iron Man

Contraband

By contrast, only Seagram, 17 years ago, has gone on to win the National having won a race at the Festival en route.

Betting

Despite its reputation as being a lottery for punters, 13 of the last 17 winners of the race were in the first eight in the betting. Silver Birch bucked this trend last year, but he did meet most of the other criteria and was a previous course winner.

This is a positive for:

Cloudy Lane

Slim Pickings

Comply Or Die

Simon

Chelsea Harbour

Bewleys Berry

Butler’s Cabin

Snowy Morning

King Johns Castle

Mr Pointment

PREDICTION

If we apply these trends to the 2008 Grand National, what is the likely result?

1st SLIM PICKINGS

2nd Bewleys Berry

3rd Chelsea Harbour

4th Naunton Brook

5th Dun Doire

6th Cornish Rebel

[sinister]

I don't gamble money, but I expect a horse with a midget attachment to win.

[Emma]

Being from Irish roots horseracing is a must in our family, so it's tradition for us all to put a bet on. My horse won two years ago, and I remember being so pleased because I'd never won money in the Grand National before. I've no idea which horse I'm choosing yet; I expect I'll go and examine the runners tomorrow.

[KingTutsWWH]

I don't normally put money on horses, but The Grand National is special. I always have a few quid on it, and have won several times.

This year I'm going to bung a little bit on Comply Or Die (good form, I liked the name and the colours) and some on Naunton Brook (dunno, just jumped out at me from the page).

[Emma]

I always remember when I was smaller I'd put bets on purely because I liked the name.

[KingTutsWWH]

I always remember when I was smaller I'd put bets on purely because I liked the name.

I used to put bets on 'cos I fancied the jockey when I was a teenager.:oops:

It worked though...

[Chaos]

My tip would be not to waste your money in the first place

[tamba]

To many horses die for this 'sport'

[Jono]

I've had a punt on Cloudy Lane, Slim Pickings and Mr Pointment.

[Timsk]

We've gone for Turko, Naunton Brook, Tumbling Dice, Comply or Die, and Iron Man... More or less randomly.

How do other people choose their bets?

[E*F*4L]

one of these will win

Cloudy Lane

Mr Pointment

Simon

Bewleys Berry

[Jono]

I normally go for random names but this year i have gone for potential favourites. Probably wouldn't win as much though.

[KingTutsWWH]

Yay! I've just won 18 quid! Shame Jono, Mr Pointment was doing so well.

[Jono]

I spent £10 and got £7 in winnings. Heh. Mr Pointment was doing so well, damnit. But at least Slim Pickings came fourth. I'm not that bad as sport then...

[Behelzebub]

Haha, I got three chocolate horses' heads from my mum for having the third-placed horse (Snowy Morning I think) in our family sweepstake. We don't bet actual money, we just have a sweepstake with chocolate as prizes instead...

[Geezer7348]

doh , didn't do too well in the race today, don't think I won anything at all, thankfully I have the footy pools to rely on though to get my money back

[Riz]

I won!

Corr, i never win things. Good things are meant to come in 3's, i'll be waiting patiently for my two other bouts of luck.

[dstrkzn]

I Had Cloudy Lane and i think Vodka Bleu Neither of them Won. Blah. Although Celtic 0 - 1 Motherwell cheered me up.

[Emma]

but this year i have gone for potential favourites.

Yeah, you really shouldn't do that. Hint: they never win.

I went for Bewleys Berry and Chelsea Harbour, I came 5th and I had a pound on each way, so I missed out by a fraction.

[Jono]

Yeah, you really shouldn't do that. Hint: they never win.

Hence why I have pocketed £7?

[KingTutsWWH]

one of these will win

Cloudy Lane

Mr Pointment

Simon

Bewleys Berry

Having a bit of an off day on the psychic front?

[Jono]

Is that you Derek? Mary loves Dick...

[SEANN]

I was happy so see that cloudy lane didn't win. I gained quite a bit

[Riz]

Hence why I have pocketed £7?

You didnt exactly make a profit. In fact, you lost 3 quid.

Thats not a win in my books.